In the latest election forecast, pollster Nate Silver has indicated that former President Donald Trump is slightly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris as they approach the Labor Day weekend.
What Happened: Despite Harris leading Trump by 3.8 points in the updated Silver Bulletin’s national polling tracker, her chances of winning the Electoral College have seen a decline.
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Silver’s forecast shared on Friday, gives Trump a 52.4% chance of winning the Electoral College, which is about 5 points higher than Harris’s 47.3%.
Silver attributes this shift to the convention bounce adjustment applied to polls conducted during or after the Democratic National Convention.
He suggests that Harris’s polls might be somewhat inflated at the moment, similar to how Trump’s numbers were inflated after the Republican National Convention.
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However, if Harris can maintain her current standing for a few more weeks, Silver believes she could start to rise again in the forecast as the model becomes more confident that she’s out of the convention bounce period.
“Still, the tight polls in Pennsylvania are a worry for the vice president,” he stated.
Why It Matters: Silver had previously stated that Harris had a 97% chance of winning the Electoral College if she secured North Carolina, a pivotal swing state.
Adding to the election fervor, both candidates will have movies released about them in October, weeks before the 2024 presidential election. These films could potentially influence public opinion and impact the election results.
Meanwhile, earlier this week it was reported that Republicans are concerned that Trump’s campaign strategy against Harris may be losing effectiveness. They are also troubled by Trump’s association with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard.
